{"id":1671,"date":"2022-10-26T14:33:37","date_gmt":"2022-10-26T12:33:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/?page_id=1671"},"modified":"2022-10-26T21:53:57","modified_gmt":"2022-10-26T19:53:57","slug":"cotes-bookmakers-second-tour-elections-bresiliennes-lula-bolsonaro","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/cs\/sazkove-kancelare-druhe-kolo-brazilske-volby-lula-bolsonaro\/","title":{"rendered":"Kurz bookmaker\u016f na druh\u00e9 kolo brazilsk\u00fdch voleb mezi Lulou a Bolsonarem"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/lula-bolsonaro-1024x512.jpg\" alt=\"B\u00fdval\u00fd brazilsk\u00fd prezident kandiduj\u00edc\u00ed na znovuzvolen\u00ed Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (vlevo) se objev\u00ed v Sao Paulu v Braz\u00edlii 3. \u010dervence 2022 a brazilsk\u00fd prezident Jair Bolsonaro (vpravo) se \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed 9. \u010dervna 2022 v Los Angeles. Brazilci jdou k volb\u00e1m v \u0159\u00edjnu a budou m\u00edt na v\u00fdb\u011br mezi znovuzvolen\u00edm Bolsonara nebo n\u00e1vratem b\u00fdval\u00e9ho prezidenta da Silvy.\" class=\"wp-image-1675\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/lula-bolsonaro-1024x512.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/lula-bolsonaro-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/lula-bolsonaro-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/lula-bolsonaro-18x9.jpg 18w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/lula-bolsonaro.jpg 1440w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vsa\u010fte na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed ve druh\u00e9m kole Lula nebo Bolsonaro<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><br>B\u011bhem t\u011bchto voleb n\u011bkolik online s\u00e1zkov\u00fdch kancel\u00e1\u0159\u00ed registrovan\u00fdch v zahrani\u010d\u00ed umo\u017enilo lidem vsadit \u010d\u00e1stky, o kter\u00fdch v\u011b\u0159ili, \u017ee ur\u010dit\u00fd kandid\u00e1t vyhraje v brazilsk\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch, a pokud m\u011bli pravdu, mohli by z\u00edskat finan\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1vratnost z vsazen\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee fondy t\u011bchto spole\u010dnost\u00ed jsou ohro\u017eeny, jsou jejich v\u00fdpo\u010dty v\u00fdnos\u016f ze s\u00e1zek slo\u017eit\u00e9 a berou v \u00favahu n\u011bkolik faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 mohou minimalizovat ztr\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>VEJA provedla pr\u016fzkum mezi \u0161esti hern\u00edmi spole\u010dnostmi za pomoci profesora F\u00e1bia Machada, vedouc\u00edho statistick\u00e9ho odd\u011blen\u00ed \u00dastavu matematiky a statistiky USP, a data jsou na webu k dispozici tuto st\u0159edu od 5 do 11 hodin a ukazuj\u00ed procento p\u0159ibli\u017enou \u0161anci ka\u017ed\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta. To ukazuje, \u017ee v pr\u016fm\u011bru si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva m\u00e1 69,3 % \u0161anci na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed ve druh\u00e9m kole, zat\u00edmco Jair Bolsonaro m\u00e1 30,6 % \u0161anci na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed ve druh\u00e9m kole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kasina pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed metodu v\u00fdpo\u010dtu s\u00e1zek, kter\u00e9 naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed kurzy, co\u017e ve skute\u010dnosti nen\u00ed nic jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e n\u00e1sobek, kter\u00fd ovliv\u0148uje v\u00fd\u0161i s\u00e1zky, kdy\u017e tref\u00edte m\u00ed\u010d. Nap\u0159\u00edklad u Unibetu za ka\u017ed\u00e9 1 euro vsazen\u00e9 na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed kandid\u00e1ta Luly s\u00e1zka\u0159 vyhraje 1,33 euro, pokud vyhraje volby, a 3,25 euro v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b s\u00e1zky a Bolsonara, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee bookmaker pova\u017euje ud\u00e1lost za pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201eMatematika s\u00e1zkov\u00fdch kancel\u00e1\u0159\u00ed zahrnuje tak\u00e9 v\u00fdklad, kter\u00fd je mezi matematikou a h\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00edm, ale jde o jejich pen\u00edze, a proto se sna\u017e\u00ed hodnotu p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit realit\u011b. Logika hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f a nad\u0161en\u00ed ob\u010dan\u016f ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee je to jinak,\u201c \u0159ekl Machado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kurzy s\u00e1zkov\u00fdch kancel\u00e1\u0159\u00ed <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Domy neup\u0159esnily, jak byla jejich hodnocen\u00ed vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1na, tak\u017ee pro pr\u016fzkum VEJA byly provedeny hrub\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u00fadaj\u016f dostupn\u00fdch na ka\u017ed\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b. \u201eStatistika pracuje na hodnot\u00e1ch pravd\u011bpodobnosti 0 a\u017e 1. \u0160ance kandid\u00e1ta na v\u00fdhru jsou p\u0159evr\u00e1cen\u00e9 k pravd\u011bpodobnosti, a proto d\u011bl\u00edm \u010d\u00edslo \u201ejedna\u201c hodnotou \u201elich\u00e1\u201c. V prvn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladu dva kandid\u00e1ti Sou\u010det je 1,059. V mnoha p\u0159\u00edpadech se tento p\u0159ebytek 0,059 naz\u00fdv\u00e1 Juice, neboli kolik d\u016fm vyhr\u00e1l p\u0159i s\u00e1zen\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl Machado. \u201eAbych zjistil procenta, vzal jsem v\u00fdkon domu a vytvo\u0159il jsem pravidlo t\u0159\u00ed, abych zjistil, jak se v\u00fdsledky jednotliv\u00fdch kandid\u00e1t\u016f shoduj\u00ed.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Parier sur la victoire au second tour de Lula ou Bolsonaro Au cours de ces \u00e9lections, plusieurs bookmakers en ligne enregistr\u00e9s \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9tranger ont permis aux gens de parier des montants qu&#8217;ils pensaient qu&#8217;un certain candidat gagnerait \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle br\u00e9silienne, et s&#8217;ils avaient raison, pourraient gagner un retour financier sur le montant mis\u00e9. \u00c9tant &#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-nosidebar.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.0 (Yoast SEO v21.0) - 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