{"id":951,"date":"2022-03-08T15:51:23","date_gmt":"2022-03-08T14:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/?page_id=951"},"modified":"2022-03-30T23:38:42","modified_gmt":"2022-03-30T21:38:42","slug":"bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/bookmakers-pool-presidential-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Bookmakers: more reliable than Polls for the presidential election"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span id=\"le-paradoxe-des-sondages-politiques\">The Paradox of Political Polls<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><br><em>The more people learned about polling techniques and were exposed to the results, the more biased the results became. Why?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-duotone-000096-rgba2557171051-1\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" src=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle-1024x545.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-965\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle-1024x545.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle-768x409.jpg 768w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle-1536x818.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle-2048x1091.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite their long history, pre-election polls have one major flaw: respondents have free will to lie, change their minds, and cheat on past ballots. Recent examples from the United Kingdom and the United States show that a large part of the population is either unrepresented in the surveyed sample and therefore difficult to correct, or changes their voting intentions at the last minute depending on factors direct or voluntary (a fact based on statistical sample surveys makes it difficult to track the cause of this change). Which is very clearly the case during this election, the number of voters is a record!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-5 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-3 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<center><script type=\"text\/javascript\" charset=\"utf-8\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gambling-affiliation.com\/cpm\/v=AmIMTDSs92QY6b0MzDMvM5laCjJ-ZlA-1oQ-7tKsi.w_GA7331V2\"><\/script><\/center>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium\"><a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/recommends\/unibet-logo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"no follow noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1252\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-18x10.jpg 18w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>What if too many polls make them obsolete? And if we were faced with a paradox, which I would define as follows:<strong> The more people understand polling techniques and are exposed to the results, the more biased the results are\u201d<\/strong> ?<br>Which is not the case for <a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/bookmakers-pool-presidential-election\/\">bookmakers<\/a> for example Unibet, <a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/bwin-politic-election-2022\/\">Bwin<\/a>, Betclic\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/8788732\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span id=\"les-sondages-politique-face-aux-opinions-et-bulle-informative\">Political polls versus opinions and information bubble<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, the continued publication and national exposure of public opinion research collides with two interacting psychological phenomena: confirmation bias means that one tends to prefer information in the direction of his thoughts and assumptions; at the same time, filtered information bubbles lead to preferring He has similar sources of information and therefore tends to agree with him (whether friends on social networks, or choosing sources of traditional information, known to the public with their editorial lines).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Faced with uncertainty and biased samples, forecasting tools other than <a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/bookmakers-pool-presidential-election\/\">Surveys <\/a>can emerge, and I think that the most relevant is the one that seemed incongruous to me a year ago: online gambling with sites like Unibet, Bwin, Betclic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span id=\"les-elections-presidentielles-c8217est-comme-le-pmu\">Presidential Elections are like the PMU <\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The first <a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/\">betting on the election <\/a>looks like what you see on a racetrack. Each candidate has a rank, which is constantly changing. This is calculated by experts using computers, who can integrate opinion polls, socio-economic factors, recent events, results of previous consultations and issues already recorded in their calculations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, if a bettor bets the amount that night, he will be elected on the evening of April 10 and he will restore his initial stake, increasing his amount by approximately (from 5\/6 to 11\/10, depending on the site). Obviously, if he does not become president, he will definitely lose the initial bet. Given this table, if Nicolas Dupont-Aignan wins, a very lucky or very visionary person can win up to 1000 times their stake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, bookmakers will have to decide between increasing the odds to attract potential bettors to their sites and lowering the odds so as not to overpay the winner and keep their winnings. The mechanism therefore tends to self-regulate, which is why we see a consensus on the scores on this table, the gap between the three highest rated candidates is negligible, thus the bookmakers Unibet, Bwin, Betclic compete with advertising offers and promotional activities between them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span id=\"un-bon-parieur-c8217est-un-bon-trader\">A good punter is a good trader<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The second bet I found is similar to how the stock market works. The site is a marketplace for trading products that function like stocks. A Yes product will be paid 1 $ on election night if the candidate it represents wins the election, and otherwise 0. Conversely, a No product will be paid 1 $ if it loses and worthless if he wins. Therefore, its price can fluctuate between 0 $ and 1 $, expressed in cents. Here, it is up to the bettor to set the price himself. If an investor owns a candidate&#039;s shares and thinks they won&#039;t be elected, they can sell them to another person as long as their sale and purchase prices are comparable. But if all sellers want a price that buyers are not willing to pay, then the deal won&#039;t happen. <strong>Thus, the odds displayed are the price of the last trade, and therefore represent the market consensus on the probability of winning for this or that candidate.<\/strong>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, bettors can record profits or losses well before the election. By purchasing this candidate&#039;s Yes shares on February 5 and selling them on February 21, I would get about twice as much initial participation, even ignoring the May 7 result. So we can play games either by predicting the end result or simply by predicting trends over a given period of time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span id=\"mieux-que-les-sondages-vouloir-gagner-son-paris-permet-de-trouver-le-vainqueur-final-de-l8217election-presidentielle\">Better than the polls wanting to win your Paris allows you to find the final winner of the presidential election <\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In both cases, the psychological biases associated with the poll and its results were weighed out because participants were not interested in betting on the outcome they wanted, but on the outcome they thought would happen. Therefore, the prediction system based on greed seems to be less susceptible to manipulation, whether voluntary or involuntary, and bettors have no interest in playing the game. But this raises the difficult question ethical to pay for your opinion\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center unibet\" style=\"font-size:25px\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0d7a12\" class=\"has-inline-color\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/recommends\/unibet\/\">\u20ac150 Bonus offered with Unibet<br>For your 1st Political or Sporting Bet: Click here<\/a><\/strong><\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized wp-duotone-000097-ff4747-6\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/election-standard-scale-4_00x-gigapixel-1024x623.jpg\" alt=\"Election 2022\" style=\"width:256px;height:156px\" width=\"256\" height=\"156\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parier-presidentielle helps you to make your choice between the different<a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/\"> Bookmakers Bwin, Unibet, Betclic to Bet on the Future American President in 2024<\/a> : <\/strong><br><a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/unibet-politic-election-2022\/\">Unibet Presidential Bookmaker<\/a> : Detailed and free guide to make your 1st bet online with all odds and how to take advantage of the Bonus offered!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As well as the other online betting sites: <a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/unibet-politic-election-2022\/\">Bwin<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/netbet-betting-politic-election-2022\/\">NetBet<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/betclic-presidential-2022\/\">Betclic<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/winamax-politic-election-2022\/\">Winamax<\/a>, Parions Sport, Zebet, Betway, France-Pari, Vbet, Cloudbet, 1Xbit, 1xbet, Betfair, Betwinner\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-11 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<p>You have just read our file:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\"><h4 class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-post-title\"><span id=\"les-bookmakers-plus-fiable-que-les-sondages-pour-l8217election-presidentielle\"><a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/bookmakers-pool-presidential-election\/\" target=\"_self\" >Bookmakers: more reliable than Polls for the presidential election<\/a><\/span><\/h4><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\">Continue reading with our other exclusive files,<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"tous-les-pronostics-sondage-et-cotes-pour-parier-sur-le-futur-vainqueur-de-l-election-presidentielle-2022\"><span id=\"tous-les-pronostics-sondage-et-cotes-pour-parier-sur-le-futur-vainqueur-de-l8217election-presidentielle-2024\">All the Predictions, Surveys and Odds to bet on the future winner of the 2024 Presidential election:<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/macron-election\/\">Bet on Emmanuel Macron with Unibet, Betclic, Bwin<\/a> : The favorite of polls and predictions <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/marine-le-pen-election\/\">Marine Le Pen: Her odds and how to bet with Bookmakers<\/a>: The challenger according to Unibet<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<center><script type=\"text\/javascript\" charset=\"utf-8\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gambling-affiliation.com\/cpm\/v=AmIMTDSs92QY6b0MzDMvM5laCjJ-ZlA-1oQ-7tKsi.w_GA7331V2\"><\/script><\/center>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span id=\"donald-trump-vs-joe-biden-la-video-qui-lance-les-paris-en-ligne-sur-l8217election-politique-de-2024\">Donald Trump vs Joe Biden: The video that launches online betting on the 2024 political election<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Former President Donald Trump launches 2024 White House bid #Short\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/hZykPRVe4Ag?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium\"><a href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/recommends\/unibet\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" src=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1252\" srcset=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet-18x10.jpg 18w, https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/unibet.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Find the Wiki, the main political news on Cannabis and its legal derivatives: <strong>HHC, H4cbd, Thcp, Thcv, HSD, HHCPO, C4B<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<div id=\"toc_container\" class=\"no_bullets\"><p class=\"toc_title\">Table of Contents<\/p><ul class=\"toc_list\"><li><\/li><li><ul><li><\/li><li><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><ul><li><ul><li><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><\/li><li><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le Paradoxe des sondages politiques Plus les gens apprenaient les techniques de sondage et \u00e9taient expos\u00e9s aux r\u00e9sultats, plus les r\u00e9sultats devenaient biais\u00e9s. Pourquoi? Malgr\u00e9 leur longue histoire, les sondages pr\u00e9\u00e9lectoraux ont un d\u00e9faut majeur\u00a0: les r\u00e9pondants ont le libre arbitre de mentir, de changer d&#8217;avis et de tricher sur les bulletins de vote pass\u00e9s. &#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-nosidebar.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.0 (Yoast SEO v21.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Les Bookmakers : plus fiable que les Sondages pour l&#039;\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle - Finale Coupe du Monde FIFA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les cotes des bookmakers sont plus fiable que les sondage pour la Politique : Pourquoi et comment en profiter?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/bookmakers-pool-presidential-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Les Bookmakers : plus fiable que les Sondages pour l&#039;\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les cotes des bookmakers sont plus fiable que les sondage pour la Politique : Pourquoi et comment en profiter?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/en\/bookmakers-pool-presidential-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Parier Pr\u00e9sidentielle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-03-30T21:38:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle-1024x545.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/parier-presidentielle.com\/bookmakers-sondages-election-presidentielle\/\",\"name\":\"Les Bookmakers : plus fiable que les Sondages pour l'\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle - 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