The French presidential election, the passions of Bookmakers

Macron and Marine Le Pen the new favorites

After François Fillon's victory in the primary, the French electoral landscape seems to have been written in advance. Then the Fillon affair changed everything. From now on, bookmakers are betting on Macron and Marine Le Pen.

Who would have thought that the presidential election of the French Republic would fascinate British online sports betting companies? On Friday March 3, the odds on politics have changed since the Fillon Incident”, the right-wing “Plan B” Juppé is current, and Le Pen ranked third and second in number in Paris. Fourth place, just after the fight between boxers David Haye and Tony Bellow, is unprecedented! If more evidence was needed, to prove the particularity of this presidential election.

Politics the new playground for Bookmakers

Before this, political betting never had the opportunity to truly compete with sports betting. But, just like Eurovision or the Oscars, bookmakers consider their presence on their website essential, because it is one of the opportunities for non-sporting media to be included in general media. Otherwise, bookmakers have more difficulty with political betting: too much uncertainty and a lot of work on a subject about which they do not know much contrary to the soccer betting . Everything in sport is much simpler, almost always the best wins, and in politics, nothing excludes that it is the worst... This lack of “political culture” of bookmakers is undoubtedly an important cause. The root cause of the costly error, the operator Unibet, mistakenly paid nearly 1 million euros to those who bet on Hillary Clinton last November. With the 4 million euros paid to Trump bettors, this is the biggest loss recorded by the site during the election. The fun of the game involves certain risks, otherwise there is no fun.

Bwin, Unibet, Betclic now offer politics betting

Special betting conditions

With the French presidential election, things got complicated – the first clientele: the French, were excluded from the game. They are not allowed to access their website to place bets which changed in 2022 Unibet, Betclic now offers betting on politics. And those who want to break the law, by visiting foreign sites on the Internet, immediately felt the ill wind of apartheid: an ugly “France prohibits recording” even blackened the computer screen before revealing his identity. Like a Gallic village that resists the globalization of the gaming industry, the Frenchman will soon become the last to not have the right to bet on politics, the only one not to enjoy the pleasure of betting with fixed dimensions. In this type of betting, the odds are determined by the bookmaker based on experience. Unlike PMU, the odds are mathematically based on the number of bets. However, since the law promulgated on June 2, 1891, France has banned the gaming industry, and the pari-mutuel betting monopoly granted to the PMU in 1931 was only partially broken by the Walter Law in 2010, and only on the Internet . A French exception, the presidential election has no candidates who plan to reform it, and the successful lobbying of the leaders of the French company PMU…

English bookmakers

I heard, but I find it hard to believe that some of our compatriots, due to uncontrollable political and gambling hobbies, crossed the strait, regardless of morals and laws, and opened accounts in Angelettere . Get a credit card, connect to a bookmaker to bet 100 euros on Macron, 50 euros on Fillon... and a few simple coins on Paris Saint-Germain's victory in Barcelona, just to protect yourself.

This paradox increases the difficulty for them to establish odds. We tend to play games when we vote, and the people who have the right to play are not the people who have the right to vote, so the nature of gambling becomes difficult to understand. As for the polls provided so far for benchmarks, the Brexit and Trump elections have finished banning them. They use it today as an anti-compass.

Fluctuation of bookmakers' odds according to political scandals

Everything changed on January 25, when the so-called fictional work of the Fillon family was exhibited by Canard Enchainé. This is where the money really starts flowing into the bookmakers' coffers ( Bwin, Unibet, Betclic). Before that, the election was a long, peaceful river. After Fillon won the right and middle primary elections, his presidential future seemed assured. His position as the main favorite was not called into question due to Hamon's astonishing performance in the left-wing primaries. From one operator to another (around 20), the Sarthe odds do not exceed 1.5 to 1 (you bet 1 and you obtain 1.5 profit). No one is eager to bet on Hamon, even though the odds are 20/1, it's no better than the odds of betting on Melenchon at 55/1. In my humble opinion, the bet that excites British punters is Macron. like Tony Blair in the 90s, the 44-year-old Prime Minister. After Hollande's defection, Macron's odds of winning have fallen from 20/1 in September to 4/1. As for Juppé, he still appears curiously in “Betting”, 80/1. But the existence of these possibilities is misleading. In most cases, this shows that the betting flow is less volatile than the bookmaker's beliefs. For example, just because Poutou's offer is 150/1 does not mean he has the option to bet £1. To be more precise, if you bet on an underdog, it is neither the possibility of winning 150 times the main one, nor the awakening of the media to a new social phenomenon that no one has seen. Not! It's just that some people don't play to win. Because some people buy shoes and never wear them. Who orders coffee at the end of a meal to avoid drinking. Good fool who participates in the intoxicating and fascinating unpredictability of human beings. They can become the heroes of the glorious uncertainty of the presidential campaign.

The case of Marine Le Pen, a surprise for bookmakers in Politics

Marine Le Pen. If we bet when we vote, why should they bet collectively if the British don't vote? Because that's what's happening. With Betclic, Jean-Marie's daughter brings together 54% of bets, and it is said that there is even a £30,000 bet from the same player. The highest in this campaign so far… Unibet is the most active and trusted political betting operator. He commented on Twitter, supporting the chart: "If the number of bets on different candidates reflects victory, the final election would already be over." “
Indeed, the president of the FN is a godsend for the bookmaker: “At present, by entrusting us with the head of Unibet's political services, we risk losing more than 200,000 euros, which is a lot, but we think that the market overestimates its chances of success. » This explains why bookmakers are likely to offer odds of 3/1. But the question remains: why want to collectively bet on the unfortunate Marine Le Pen?

The bookmakers' favorite political headliners

Firstly, punters will be mechanically attracted to this name – she is more famous than all the other competitors. Then his agenda is simple and easy to identify, and the punters boil it down to “foreigners outside” and “Frexit”. Punters and bookmakers alike love their simplicity. But to better understand this phenomenon, you need to understand the psychology of the player. It's universal, not yesterday. As early as 1781, Immanuel Kant wrote in “Critique of Pure Reason”: “Someone often expresses his suggestions with such assurance and such stubborn courage that he seems to have completely eliminated the fear of error.
The bet This is the optimistic vision of the bettor. At the beginning of his career, he was indeed a cheerful, naughty and generous person, in eternal contradiction and richness of thought. He was shaken by doubt and great hope. However, as he ages and becomes a compulsive gambler, the gambler appears to be bitter, paranoid, vindictive, limited and vindictive. If he believes in the bet with his brain at first, he will only listen to his own voice, and soon, he will choose the bet with courage. What does his courage require? At the end of the world, sacred vengeance will erase his debts and make him forget his faults, those which erode him, and these faults often prevent him from winning when he knows what to play. Betting on Marine Le Pen's chance to become President of the French Republic will therefore have the virtue of catharsis. The gambler placed a bet on her, as if to give her the double evil vote. It is this bettor that the bookmaker must lure. This is where the operation of a Bookmaker can truly reveal French political history!

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