Bookmaker and Politics: Paris on the French elections

The French presidential election, the passion of Bookmakers

Macron and Marine Le Pen the new favorites

After François Fillon's victory in the primary, the French electoral landscape seems to have been written in advance. Then the Fillon affair changed everything. From now on, the bookmakers bet on Macron and Marine Le Pen.

Who would have thought that the presidential election of the French Republic would fascinate British online sports betting companies? On Friday, March 3, the odds on politics have changed since the Fillon Incident, the right-wing Juppe's "Plan B" is in the news, and Le Pen ranked third and second in Paris numbers. Fourth place, just after the fight between boxers David Haye and Tony Bellow, is unprecedented! If more evidence was needed, to prove the particularity of this presidential election.

Politics the new playground for Bookmakers

Prior to this, political betting had never had the opportunity to truly compete with sports betting. But, just like at Eurovision or at the Oscars, the bookmakers consider their presence on their website as essential, because it is one of the opportunities for which the non-sports media and to be included in the general media. Otherwise, the bookmakers have a harder time with political bets: too much uncertainty and a lot of work on a subject about which they don't know much contrary to the soccer betting . Everything in sport is much simpler, almost always the best wins, and in politics, nothing excludes that it is the worst… This lack of “political culture” of the bookmakers is undoubtedly an important cause. The root cause of the costly error, the operator Unibet, mistakenly paid nearly 1 million euros to those who bet on Hillary Clinton last November. With the 4 million euros paid out to Trump bettors, this is the biggest loss recorded by the site during the election. The pleasure of the game involves certain risks, otherwise there is no pleasure.

Bwin, Unibet, Betclic now offer politics betting

Special betting conditions

With the French presidential election, things got complicated – the first clientele: the French, were excluded from the game. They are not allowed to access their website to place bets which changed in 2022 Unibet, Betclic now offers politics betting. And those who want to break the law, by visiting foreign sites on the Internet, immediately felt the bad wind of apartheid: an ugly "France prohibits registration" even blacked out the computer screen before revealing his identity. Like a Gallic village that resists the globalization of the gambling industry, the Frenchman will soon become the last not to have the right to bet on politics, the only one not to taste the pleasure of betting. at fixed odds. In this type of bet, the odds are determined by the bookmaker based on experience. Unlike PMU, the odds are mathematically a function of the number of bets. However, since the law enacted on June 2, 1891, France has banned the gambling industry, and the mutual betting monopoly granted to the PMU in 1931 was only partially broken by the Walter law in 2010, and only on the Internet. . A French exception, the presidential election has no candidates who plan to reform it, and the successful lobbying of the leaders of the French company PMU…

English bookmakers

I heard, but I find it hard to believe that some of our compatriots, due to political hobbies and uncontrollable gambling, crossed the strait, regardless of mores and laws, and opened accounts in Angelettere . Get a credit card, connect to a bookmaker to bet 100 euros on Macron, 50 euros on Fillon… and a few simple coins on Paris Saint-Germain's victory in Barcelona, just to protect you.

This paradox increases the difficulty for them to establish odds. We tend to play games when we vote, and the people who have the right to play are not the people who have the right to vote, so the nature of the bet becomes difficult to understand. As for the polls provided so far for benchmarks, the Brexit and Trump elections have finished banning them. They use it today as an anti-compass.

Fluctuation of bookmakers' odds according to political scandals

Everything changed on January 25, when the so-called fictional work of the Fillon family was exhibited by the Canard Enchainé. This is where the money really starts flowing into the bookies' vault ( Bwin, Unibet, Betclic). Before that, the election formed a long peaceful river. After Fillon won the right-wing and middle-wing primaries, his presidential future seemed assured. His position as the main favorite went unchallenged due to Hamon's stunning performance in the leftwing primaries. From one operator to another (about 20), Sarthois odds do not exceed 1.5 to 1 (you bet 1 and you get 1.5 profit). Nobody is eager to bet on Hamon, even if the odds are 20/1, it's not better than the odds to bet on Melenchon at 55/1. In my humble opinion, the bet that excites British punters is Macron. like a Tony Blair in the 90s, the 44-year-old Prime Minister. After the defection of Holland, Macron's odds of winning have fallen from 20/1 in September to 4/1. As for Juppé, he always appears curiously in "Betting", 80/1. But the existence of these possibilities is misleading. In most cases, this shows that the betting stream is less volatile than the bookmaker's beliefs. For example, just because Poutou's offer is 150/1 does not mean he has the option of betting £1. To be more precise, if you bet on an underdog, it is neither the possibility of winning 150 times the principal, nor the awakening of the media to a new social phenomenon that no one has seen. Do not! It's just that some people don't play to win. Because some people buy shoes and never wear them. Who orders coffee at the end of a meal to avoid drinking. Good madman who participates in the intoxicating and fascinating unpredictability of human beings. They can become the heroes of the glorious uncertainty of the presidential campaign.

The case of Marine Le Pen, a surprise for bookmakers in Politics

Marine Le Pen. If we bet when we vote, why should they collectively bet if the British don't vote? Because that is what is happening. With Betclic, Jean-Marie's daughter aggregates 54% bets, and there is even said to be a £30,000 bet from the same player. So far the highest in this campaign… Unibet is the most active and reliable political betting operator. He commented on Twitter, supporting the graphic: “If the number of bets on different candidates reflects victory, the final election would already be over. " 
Indeed, the president of the FN is a godsend for the bookmaker: "At the moment, by entrusting us with the head of political services at Unibet, we risk losing more than 200,000 euros, which is a lot, but we think that the market overestimates its chances of success. This explains why bookmakers are likely to offer odds at 3/1. But the question remains: why want to bet collectively on the unfortunate Marine Le Pen?

Bookmakers' favorite political headliners

First of all, bettors will be mechanically attracted to this name - she is more famous than all the other competitors. Then, its program is simple and easy to identify, and bettors boil down to “outside strangers” and “Frexit”. Both bettors and bookmakers love their simplicity. But to better understand this phenomenon, it is necessary to understand the psychology of the player. It is universal, not from yesterday. As early as 1781, Immanuel Kant wrote in “Critique of Pure Reason”: “Someone often expresses his suggestions with such assurance and such stubborn courage that he seems to have completely eliminated the fear of error.
The bet This is the bettor's optimistic vision. At the beginning of his career, he was indeed a cheerful, mischievous and generous person, in the eternal contradiction and the richness of thought. He was shaken by doubt and great hope. However, as he ages and becomes a compulsive gambler, the bettor appears to be bitter, paranoid, vindictive, limited, and vindictive. If he believes in betting with his brain at first, he will only listen to his own voice, and soon he will choose the bet with courage. What does his courage require? At the end of the world, the sacred revenge will erase his debts and make him forget his faults, those which erode him, and these faults often prevent him from winning when he knows what to play. So betting on Marine Le Pen's chance of becoming President of the French Republic will therefore have the virtue of catharsis. The player placed a bet on her, as if to give her the evil double vote. It is this bettor that the bookmaker must lure. This is where the operation of a Bookmaker can truly reveal French political history!

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