Bookmakers' odds for the 2nd round of the Brazilian elections between Lula and Bolsonaro

Brazil's former president, who is running for re-election, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, left, appears in Sao Paulo, Brazil, July 3, 2022, and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, right, attends a meeting on June 9, 2022 in Los Angeles. Brazilians will go to the polls in October and they will have the choice between re-electing Bolsonaro or bringing back former president da Silva.

Bet on the victory in the second round of Lula or Bolsonaro

During these elections, several foreign-registered online bookmakers allowed people to bet amounts that they thought a certain candidate would win in the Brazilian presidential election, and if they were right, could win a financial return on the amount wagered. Since the funds of these companies are at risk, their calculations of betting returns are complex and take into account several factors that can minimize losses.

VEJA conducted a survey of six game companies with the help of Professor Fábio Machado, head of the statistics department at USP's Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, and the data is available on the website this Wednesday 5 to 11 o'clock, showing the percentage of each candidate's approximate chance. This shows that on average they think Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a 69.3 % chance of winning the second round, while Jair Bolsonaro has a 30.6 % chance of winning the second round.

Casinos use a method of calculating bets they call odds, which is really nothing more than a multiple that affects the amount of the bet when you hit the ball. At Unibet for example, for every 1 euro bet on the victory of the candidate Lula, the bettor wins 1.33 euros if he wins the elections and 3.25 euro in the event of a bet and Bolsonaro, which means that the bookmaker considers the event as more likely.

“Bookmakers' math also involves interpretation, which is somewhere between math and guesswork, but it involves their money, which is why they try to approximate the value to reality. The logic of the players and the enthusiasm of the citizens show that different,” Machado said.

Bookmakers odds

The houses did not specify how their ratings were calculated, so for the VEJA survey, rough predictions were made based on the figures available at each site. “Statistics work on probability values from 0 to 1. A candidate's chances of winning are the inverse of the odds, so I divide the number 'one' by an 'odd' value. In the first example, two candidates The sum is 1.059. In many cases, that extra 0.059 is called Juice, or how much the house won from betting,” Machado said. "To find the percentages, I took the house yield and developed a rule of three to see how each candidate's results tallied up.