Polls and online Paris sites give Macron Winner
Change in Emmanuelle Macron's side among the bookmakers Bwin, Unibet, Betclic since the Russian war : French President Emmanuel Macron's chances of winning have increased ahead of next month's presidential election, largely thanks to his handling of the war crisis in Ukraine, according to French opinion polls.
The current French president officially announced his candidacy for re-election on Thursday March 3, finally entering a campaign as he tried to avoid (but failed to) a war.
Five years later, after his superb and surprising election to the French presidency, Macron bet that French voters would choose stability in the Ukrainian conflict, believing that he was the man for the job. Less than a month before the first vote on April 10 for the first round, the polls show that he is at the top of the intentions.
The War in Ukraine changes the odds of bookmakers Bwin, Unibet
The BVA polling group said Macron had gained 5 percentage points in the past two weeks, helped by his frantic diplomatic efforts to stop a Russian invasion.
Thus Macron would finish first with 29% in the first round, then win the second, regardless of his opponent, with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen considered his closest challenger. Thus Emmanuelle Macron's rating among the bookmakers Bwin, Unibet, Betclic linked to the Russian invasion!
“Emmanuel Macron benefited from his triple identity as head of state, protector of the people and their values, (and) head of the army and foreign affairs of the country”, the BVA said in a statement.
In addition, Ifop and OpinionWay confirmed the increase in approval rates, which gave Macron 28% and 27% respectively, compared to an average of 24% in recent months.
A Kantar poll on Thursday showed the share of voters who trusted him jumped 5 points to 45% – an impressive performance for a French president (his predecessor at one point reached 4%) and the highest approval rating Macron's high since August 2017.
A last-minute application supported by good surveys
Discreet statement Macron confirmed his intention to seek a second term in a discreet open letter to voters on Thursday evening, saying he was seeking their “trust” for another five years “to defend our values, which have been the subject of upheaval in the world."
He acknowledged that Russia's war against its neighbors would overshadow the campaign, giving it a leading role in the West's efforts to find a diplomatic solution.
“Of course, because of the context, I will not be able to campaign as I want,” he said.
Some opponents welcomed the statement made 24 hours before Friday's deadline, while others scoffed.
“The democratic debate (…) that I have been calling for for months can finally take place,” announced the candidate of the Socialist Party, the mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo.
“We could have received a letter of apology in advance,” said Manuel Bumpard, campaign director of the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon.
“The main risk for Macron would be a relatively easy re-election but no real campaign,” Bristol said. “If the debate is not resolved in the polls, it is resolved in the streets.”
Yellow Vests VS Macron, polls and rating of Bwin, Unibet gives the future result
After the 2017 election, Macron claimed that he had strongly mandated a push toward major tax and labor market reforms, but opponents openly questioned his legitimacy due to the high turnout in the first round and his small margin of victory.
After a series of relatively small protests, Macron faced a nationwide revolt by so-called yellow vest protesters in late 2018, in part over calls for greater accountability in French democracy.
Some pollsters predicted that 2017's record abstention rate could be higher in this year's vote, which was held April 10-24 - especially if the Macron-Le Pen duel repeats in the second round.
Nearly 80% of voters surveyed by pollster Elabe in February 2020 said they did not want a repeat of the 2017 runoff. However, the same poll found that 59% of respondents thought it was inevitable due to the lack of alternatives.