Polls and online Paris sites give Macron Winner
Change of the coast of Emmanuelle Macron among the bookmakers Bwin, Unibet, Betclic since the Russian war : French President Emmanuel Macron's chances of winning have risen ahead of next month's presidential election, largely thanks to his handling of the Ukraine war crisis, according to French opinion polls.
The current French president officially announced his candidacy for re-election on Thursday March 3, finally entering a campaign as he tried to avoid (but failed) a war.
Five years later, after his superb and surprising election as French president, Macron is betting that French voters will choose stability in the Ukrainian conflict, believing that he is the man for the job. Less than a month before the first vote on April 10 for the first round, the polls show that he is at the top of his intentions.
The War in Ukraine changes the odds of bookmakers Bwin, Unibet
The BVA polling group said Macron had gained 5 percentage points in the past two weeks, helped by his frantic diplomatic efforts to stop a Russian invasion.
Thus Macron would finish first with 29% in the first round and then win the second, regardless of their opponent, with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen seen as his closest challenger. Thus the rating of Emmanuelle Macron at the bookmakers Bwin, Unibet, Betclic linked to the Russian invasion!
"Emmanuel Macron benefited from his triple identity as head of state, protector of the people and their values, (and) head of the country's army and foreign affairs", the BVA said in a statement.
In addition, Ifop and OpinionWay confirmed the increase in approval ratings, which gave Macron 28% and 27% respectively, against an average of 24% in recent months.
A Kantar poll on Thursday showed the share of voters who trusted him jumped 5 points to 45% – an impressive performance for a French president (his predecessor at one point reached 4%) and the highest approval rating high of Macron since August 2017.
A last-minute application supported by good surveys
Low-key statement Macron confirmed his intention to run for a second term in a low-key open letter to voters on Thursday evening, saying he was seeking their "trust" for another five years "to defend our values, which have been the subject of upheaval in the world. »
He acknowledged that Russia's war against its neighbors would eclipse the campaign, giving it a prominent role in the West's efforts to find a diplomatic solution.
“Of course, because of the context, I will not be able to campaign as I wish,” he said.
Some opponents welcomed the statement made 24 hours before Friday's deadline, while others scoffed.
“The democratic debate (…) that I have been calling for months can finally take place”, announced the candidate of the Socialist Party, the mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo.
“We could have received a letter of apology in advance,” said Manuel Bumpard, campaign manager for the far-left candidate. Jean-Luc Melenchon.
"The main risk for Macron would be a relatively easy re-election but no real campaign," Bristol said. “If the debate is not settled in the polls, it is settled in the streets. »
Yellow Vests VS Macron, polls and rating of Bwin, Unibet gives the future result
After the 2017 election, Macron claimed he had strongly mandated a push for major tax and labor market reforms, but opponents openly questioned his legitimacy due to high turnout in the first round and his narrow margin of victory.
After a series of relatively small protests, Macron faced a nationwide uprising by so-called yellow vest protesters in late 2018, in part over calls for greater accountability in French democracy.
Some pollsters have predicted 2017's record abstention rate could be higher in this year's vote, held April 10-24 - especially if the Macron-Le Pen duel is repeated in the second round.
Nearly 80% of voters polled by pollster Elabe in February 2020 said they did not want a repeat of the 2017 run-off. However, the same poll found that 59% of those polled thought it was inevitable due to the lack of alternatives.